Background

While Southeast Asian countries have committed to the stated regional goal of 23% of renewables in the energy mix and the nationally determined commitments for greenhouse gas reductions under the Paris Climate Agreement, coal still dominates its energy production in the Region. Indonesia, by some statistics, is the world’s greatest coal exporter, and many Southeast Asian countries have become coal importers to fuel their economies. Concurrently, Southeast Asia’s rapidly growing economies, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, are hungry for energy, and electricity demand is expected to double by 2035, and in some countries by 2030. This trend provides opportunities for a direct transition to low carbon energy and electricity production. However, achieving the national climate objectives is a challenge as coal remains a fundamental source fuel for the energy sector. In view of the nearing climate target timelines, amassing climate warming implications on the Region’s economies, the calls for reduction in pollution levels and greenhouse gas emissions, Southeast Asia faces competing pressures.

The Southeast Asian economies, however, are not alone facing the need for transition, many countries are already taking steps toward low carbon commitments, with China having declared its aim to move into net zero carbon emissions by 2060. Southeast Asia is now also embarking on a dialogue regarding just transition to low carbon economies.

Just transition requires plans and policies, and coordination of efforts across the global and regional political leadership, among the many stakeholders standing to be affected by the transition. A well-structured and prudent just transition programming is paramount. Organization is a key. Region’s outside of Southeast Asia have benefited from communities of practice and stakeholder platforms that bring together a ‘coalition of the willing’. Such platforms enable development of the required knowledge base for addressing th complexities and depth of issue analysis that is required for a massive change management program ensuing from the coal phase out process. The issues range from a need for systematic initial diagnosis on the alignment of energy transition with just transition in the context of the national policies and commitments, including the nationally determined contributions and multidimensional and interdisciplinary assessments of the macro-and microeconomic impacts of the transition, as well as risk assessments. One size does not fit all in terms of options and alternatives. Under the second phase of closure considerations of mines and coal-fired power plants, workers and communities dependent on fossil fuels for livelihood will not find alternative sources of income and revenue overnight.

Identification of alternative industries and sources of livelihoods will require significant policy intervention and careful assessment and support to those standing to lose from the transition. Just transformation is not only about chasing out polluting sectors, it is also about new jobs, new industries, new skills, new investment and the opportunity to create a more equal and resilient economy. Socializing the concept of broad-based change is critical for developing a mindset among the policymakers, industrialists, and the affected communities toward alternative livelihoods. Thirdly, a global movement is emerging from the experiences in coal-dominated countries that have made the turn to low carbon futures. However, global platforms need to become meaningful information exchange forums and knowledge expansion opportunities. A regional stakeholder platform offers an approach that can encompass incumbents in the just transition process, providing the required level of knowledge needed for prudent decision-making and action and for bringing the Region’s economies into the transition process together at similar speeds to ensure sustainable and shared results for a fundamental and just transition.